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Hotel industry in India is slated for a healthy revenue growth of 11-13 per cent in the next fiscal after a strong 15-17 per cent growth in the current fiscal, backed by steady domestic demand and ramp up in foreign traveller demand, stated a CRISIL Ratings analysis. The strong demand dynamics along with modest new supply will keep the operating performance of the industry healthy over the near term.
The healthy operating performance will augur well for the industry profitability where the earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA) will continue the strong momentum over the current and the next fiscal. This, along with limited capital expenditure, will keep the credit profiles strong. The analysis of branded hotel companies with 70,000 rooms across categories, indicates as much.
“The domestic travel demand, which remained a key driver this fiscal, will sustain next fiscal as well. This momentum will be supported by healthy economic activity which drives business demand and continuing leisure travel demand which reinvigorated post the pandemic. While the demand will remain strong, the growth rate is expected to taper off next fiscal due to high base. Consequently, the average room rates (ARRs) are expected to grow 5-7 per cent next fiscal against 10-12 per cent this fiscal and the occupancy is expected to remain healthy at current levels of 73-74 per cent,” stated Anand Kulkarni, Director, CRISIL Ratings.On the other hand, the foreign tourist arrivals in India, despite a growth this fiscal, are estimated to remain 10 per cent below pre-pandemic level and pick-up in the same will provide fillip to the hotel demand next fiscal. Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to be at 9.5-9.8 million persons this fiscal against 7.9 million last fiscal and 10.6 million in fiscal 2019, as per CRISIL.
Looking ahead to 2024, Sodhi predicts a resurgence in corporate travel, with business travellers displaying increased confidence and planning trips to foster business growth and strengthen professional relationships. Notably, major global airlines are expected to exceed pre-pandemic capacity levels, with two percent more seats offered in 2024 compared to 2019, albeit with a six percent reduction in the number of flights.
Apart from the aforementioned factors, demand in the MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions and events) segment is also expected to remain healthy as corporates have resumed their activities post the pandemic induced hiatus.In addition to demand, favourable supply situation is one of the critical drivers of the strong performance of the industry.
“Greenfield capex is expected to remain muted with the new room addition remaining at 4-5 per cent per fiscal over the next couple of years. While the demand rebound has boosted the industry sentiments, the cost dynamics still remain a constraining factor for new capex. High land costs, sizable increase in construction costs, long gestation period coupled with cyclicality in the sector is resulting in cautious new capex in the sector. Therefore, brands may keep adding rooms through management contracts, which will limit their upfront capital costs,” added Nitin Kansal, Director, CRISIL Ratings.
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